Forecast

The forecast estimates how many returns are expected in the next 7, 14 and 30 days.

How it is calculated

The basis is a weighted moving average over the analysis period. More recent data is weighted more heavily, so current trends have more impact than long-past outliers. From the historical order and return volume the expected amount for each time horizon is extrapolated.

Each forecast also includes a confidence value that increases with the data basis – the more reliable orders, the higher the significance.

Minimum orders

A product only receives a forecast if it has at least the configured number of orders in the analysis period (default: 20, configurable in the configuration).

Why is my forecast box empty?

This is usually not a bug but has one of the following reasons:

1. No product reaches the minimum orders. Temporarily lower the threshold in the settings or wait until enough order history is available.
2. The expected returns round to 0. If orders are thinly spread over a long period, the expected amount in the 30-day window can be below 1. The box then shows the hint text instead of "0 expected returns".
3. It has not been calculated yet. Trigger Recalculate in the dashboard or wait for the nightly task.

In a shop with sufficient order and return volume the box fills automatically with meaningful values.

Next steps

• Dashboard
• Configuration